Lion Cipher Lab
Calibrate a penetration test effort estimate against past engagements
- Penetration Testing / Red Team
- Intermediate
- ~45 min
- Free · no account required
Why it matters
Every penetration test starts with an estimate: how many tester-days will this scope take? Under-estimate, and testers rush, coverage drops, and the client gets a thinner test than they paid for. Over-estimate, and the proposal loses to a competitor, or the client cuts scope to fit a budget. Most estimates come from a rule of thumb ('a day per twenty hosts, three per web app') or a senior tester's gut, and almost nobody checks either against what engagements actually took. NIST SP 800-115 treats planning and resourcing as part of the assessment itself. Steve McConnell's Software Estimation…
What you'll learn
- turning past engagements into an effort model
- fitting a small linear model with only the standard library
- measuring estimate error honestly with leave-one-out
- comparing a calibrated model with a rule of thumb
- giving an estimate as a range, not a single number
- spotting extrapolation beyond your own history
Steps in this lab
- An estimate is a prediction, so check it like one
- The engagement history
- Write the calibrator
- Run it: a calibrated range, and an extrapolation
- Keep the history, and the limits