Lion Cipher Lab

Route a SOC alert queue across a small model, a large model and a human — then prove the router beats both extremes on cost per correct decision

Why it matters

Every team that puts a model near a real queue eventually hits the same wall. The big model is good and it is expensive. The small model is nearly free and it is wrong often enough to scare you. And the human, who is better than both, does not scale and costs more per decision than either. The reflex is to pick one and defend it in a meeting. The engineering answer is to stop picking and start ROUTING: send each item to the cheapest tier that is likely to get it right, and escalate the rest. That idea is not new — FrugalGPT formalised the LLM cascade, RouteLLM learned the routing decision…

What you'll learn

Steps in this lab

  1. The frame: this lab decides WHO answers, not WHETHER to answer
  2. Build the queue: 400 labelled alerts from a seeded RNG
  3. The three tiers are DETERMINISTIC STUBS — and here is why that is the honest choice
  4. Price the errors: the missed escalation is the expensive one
  5. Measure the two extremes first — you cannot beat a baseline you never ran
  6. Is confidence actually a routing signal? Check before you build on it
  7. Build the router: two thresholds, not one, because the errors are not equal
  8. Read the result — including the part where your router got LESS accurate
  9. Ablate: find out which of your ideas actually paid for itself
  10. The safety dial: tune for safety and your router stops being a router
  11. The whole conclusion rests on one number you invented — so move it
  12. When NOT to route — why this, not that
  13. The way a pro does it
  14. OPTIONAL appendix: swap the stubs for real local models

Open the full interactive lab →