Lion Cipher Lab
Run a Key Assumptions Check: surface the hidden assumptions holding up your analysis before they break it
- Threat Intel Analyst
- Beginner
- ~45 min
- Free · no account required
Why it matters
The intelligence failures that make headlines are almost never caused by missing information. They are caused by an assumption everyone shared, nobody said out loud, and nobody checked — until it turned out to be wrong and took the entire conclusion down with it. 'They wouldn't attack over a holiday.' 'This actor only ever targets finance.' 'That infrastructure belongs to the group we think it does.' Each of those is a belief masquerading as a fact, and an assessment built on it is exactly as strong as the belief underneath — which no one measured, because no one noticed it was there. The Key…
What you'll learn
- running a Key Assumptions Check (KAC) end to end on a real analytic judgement
- telling an ASSUMPTION apart from a FACT and from a JUDGEMENT — and spotting the unstated ones
- surfacing the hidden beliefs a conclusion rests on using the 'it must be true that…' prompt
- stress-testing each assumption: how confident, why, what would make it false, and how being wrong changes the answer
- classifying assumptions as SOLID, CAVEATED, or UNSUPPORTED / key uncertainty
- rewriting an assessment with explicit caveats instead of buried assumptions
- converting shaky assumptions into specific, collectable intelligence requirements and indicators to watch
- using KAC to fight confirmation bias and the 'everyone assumes X' trap without letting it become a delay tactic
Steps in this lab
- The words first: assumption vs fact vs judgement
- What a Key Assumptions Check is, and the five moves it makes
- The scenario and Move 1: gather the analytic line
- Move 2: brainstorm every assumption the judgement rests on
- Move 3: stress-test each assumption with the four questions
- Move 4: classify each assumption — SOLID, CAVEATED, or UNSUPPORTED
- Move 5: rewrite with caveats, and convert shaky assumptions into collection
- When to run it, how it pairs with ACH, and the discipline of the timebox
- Now do it yourself — and keep the habit